From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Tuesday, September 17, 2024 07:37:00
AWUS01 KWNH 170902
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-171500-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1028
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Areas affected...Eastern NC
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 170900Z - 171500Z
SUMMARY...An area of low center over northern SC will maintain a
threat of locally training bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms this morning over eastern NC. Some additional areas
of flash flooding will be possible.
DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite
imagery along with surface observations shows low pressure over
northern SC. This couple with surface high pressure over the
Northeast continues to favor a persistent and moist, convergent
low-level easterly Atlantic fetch across the southern Mid-Atlantic
region. High PWs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches coupled with a nose of
modest instability with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
continues to focus across eastern NC out ahead of a frontal
occlusion. This is continuing to allow for the development of some
broken bands of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity.
The latest radar imagery shows the heaviest rains impacting
portions of Carteret and Craven Counties where rainfall rates,
especially in close proximity to Morehead City, have been locally
as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour over the last couple of hours.
Additional bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected
this morning to slowly lift north and northwestward across areas
of eastern NC as the overall frontal occlusion pivots a bit
farther north across the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Persistent
easterly flow off the Atlantic and an influx of modest instability
should favor high rainfall rates continuing with some of the
broken convective bands that maintain some stronger organization.
The latest hires model guidance generally favors areas of far
eastern NC with the heaviest additional rainfall totals, with more
modest amounts farther inland as the nose of instability wanes.
Some localized additional totals of 3 to 6+ inches of rain cannot
be ruled out this morning within any of the heavier training
convective bands. This will certainly maintain an additional
threat for areas of flash flooding.